Beyond the (College) Brochure for August 7, 2024

Mary McGrath (00:03.525)
Hello and welcome to the Beyond the College Browser podcast where we provide you information and guidance about college financials and decisions. My name is Mary McGrath and I'm a rising senior at Lyndenwood University and my co -host today is Dr. Gary Stocker who is the founder of College Viability. Dr. Stocker, welcome to the podcast.

Gary (00:20.578)
Mary, as always, a pleasure to chat with you. What do have for me today?

Mary McGrath (00:23.887)
Yeah, so just to kick things off right away, obviously you know a lot about different kinds of college rankings and how to rank different colleges based on many different factors, as we can see in your college viability app. So what would you say or which college ranking publication would you say is the best?

Gary (00:41.632)
In terms of choosing a college, Mary, I would say none of them are the best. And here's why. The ranking services, while they try and promote that they are objective, in large part is just opinion based on what the people who do the surveys, who do the ranking publications do. Mary, you and I could do our own college ranking publication, and it wouldn't be any different than what the other folks do. They spend more money at promoting it than you and I would, but they just pick reasons to say this college is better than the other. And the history.

Behind that is the 1980s maybe, US News and World Report, when they weren't making it as a magazine, they were weekly magazine publication back then, stumbled upon one year ranking colleges. And that first year, they ranked all the colleges just like anybody else would. Harvard and Yale and Dartmouth and Brown and all those who ranked the best in the criteria or whatever they had. And that really hasn't changed much in the last 40 years that they've been doing

And really, if there is value, and I will grant, if you're looking at the top 30 to 50, those IVs, those big 10 schools, SEC schools are high academic quality, there is some value in looking at what US News and World Report, and I think Princeton has one as well, and many others. Like I said, you and I could create one if we wanted to. But here's the point that I make. There's 5 ,000 -ish colleges in United States. Mary, does it matter?

If you are number 125 in that ranking or number 145, what does it matter? Colleges try and improve their rankings. What does it tell the consumer? know, the difference between 125 and 145 is nothing. It's kind of like basketball. If you average 21 .6 points per game or 21 .8 points per game, Mary, does it matter? No, you're a good scorer. Yeah, you're a good scorer.

If you average 1 .1 point a game or 1 .3 points per game, it doesn't matter. You're not much of a contributor. You're not much of a score. So I make the same analogy. And yet folks will continue to look at rankings. It's easy. It's convenient. It's culturally accepted. But they're not that good.

Mary McGrath (02:53.121)
and kind of speak about rankings and different factors when we look at things like graduate or four year graduation rates. Actually, do you have any colleges just in mind that you think of have the best four year graduate graduation rate? Excuse me. And also possibly the worst.

Gary (03:08.078)
I went to the 2024 private college viability app to answer that very question. And there are not quite 1 ,300 colleges listed. And nearly nine of them had a 100 % graduation rate over four years. And not for one millisecond do I believe any of them know what the heck they're doing. Because while not mathematically impossible, it's operationally impossible that 100 % of your students will graduate. If one of these colleges, and I'm not going to list them,

One of called me and said, Gary, you're wrong. We had 100 % graduated in 2022, I guess it'd been the last year. All right, I'll grant you the point. Eight of those 1 ,300 colleges graduated 90 % or more. All right, I can buy that. They were really high end colleges, but that's a really big number. But that's not really the point. I think you and I have talked about this. It's not who has the best graduation rates, that's

parents and students need to worry about it. So once I have the worst, you can find a hundred colleges with graduation, more than that, at least a hundred colleges with a four -year graduation rate of 60 % plus. But what about those thousands of colleges who don't, who Mary don't even graduate 50 % of their students after four years? In the United States, both combined, both public and private colleges, less than half.

public and private colleges graduate at least 50 % of their students in four years and Mary, as we've discussed before, that is a tragedy.

Mary McGrath (04:48.015)
And to kind of switch gears here and look more at the college application process and all of this. Do you know how a college determines who to admit and who to reject when they're looking at probably maybe thousands of those applications?

Gary (05:01.294)
Yeah, good question. It's an interesting spin. The top 30 to 50, those who've talked about the IVs and whatnot, the grades, the extracurricular activities, the SAT scores, the ACT scores, the essay they ask for, the interviews many of them do, are important. Now, for those listening to this podcast, that's not going to be very many of you. And for the rest of the thousands of other colleges,

All those things I talked about, they may say they're important, but they're mostly for show. And here's why. The colleges want individual students more than the individual students want or need the colleges. And so what happens is these colleges will take your application, for admission. And as long as you show some capability to breathe and have a heartbeat,

In many cases, they're going to accept you, even though many will make you go through the ritual of submitting your grades, your transcripts, listing your extracurricular activities. Some still ask for SATs, ACTs. Some still ask for essays. But many colleges are getting away from that kind of stuff. And here's why. Mary, they don't want to make it very hard on you to make application because they want the chance to accept you so that what? You'll pay tuition and fees.

So again, I'll say the colleges need students a lot, lot more, Mary, than students need the colleges.

Mary McGrath (06:33.253)
And you kind of touched on this and what you were just saying, what does that, is there any specific steps in that process from the perspective of a college or college admissions? What that might look like after you, your application is submitted, like where does it go? Who does it go to? That kind of

Gary (06:51.298)
And there's a better resource to answer that question, even though I'm going to answer it, than me. And a guy by the name of Jeff Selingo, S -E -L -I -N -G -O, Jeff Selingo, wrote a book three or four years ago, and the title of the book was Who Gets In and Why? And I've read the book countless times, especially some of the sections. And what comes out of that is it's not really what the student needs, Mary, it's really what the college needs. Let me explain

You're a basketball player. And then you would need a basketball player when they recruited you. What if you were a flute player, or really good with technology, or really good singer, or really good dancer, or you played linebacker for the football team? It's what the college is looking for.

they may have needed all those positions and they probably colleges you were looking at probably did have all those kinds of needs in mind. So they look at somebody like a Mary McGrath and say, does she play the flute? I presume you don't. Okay, okay. And so then, and then, then so your application for that college, because they're looking for a flute player goes from the unknown stack to the not accepted stack. Now that contrasts a little bit with what I just said about colleges needing you more than you needing them, but still in the end,

Mary McGrath (07:51.057)
Well, unfortunately not. Not very musically talented,

Gary (08:08.3)
colleges build a class and it's not a class of the best, most academically talented students. That's part of it for sure. But it's a class where that meets the need for the athletic teams, for the music teams, for the speech teams, for the technology teams and everything in between. So it's really a function of what the colleges need, not so much what the students need, even though that's what the colleges market. Here's why you want to come to my college.

At the end of day, it's what the colleges need, not what the students need.

Mary McGrath (08:39.963)
And a term that some of our listeners might not be familiar with is an accrediting agency. Can you explain what this

Gary (08:50.358)
Yeah, like most businesses, private or public in the country, the government has set up a regulatory group and there are six higher education accrediting agencies across the United States. they're effectively regional, although that's changing. The one you and I live in both in Chicago and down here in St. Louis is something called the Higher Learning Commission, HLC. It's based out of Chicago. And I'm trying to decide how nice to be

From my perspective, I'm going answer your question, but from my perspective, accrediting agencies have value and that they make sure that the education you're receiving at Lindenwood and any other student might have gone has some quality. It is a high quality and you'll learn stuff. You'll be able to take that diploma and earn a nice income when you're done.

But accrediting agencies measure inputs, processes, and procedures, and how many of this and how many of that. That's all they're reviewing for these colleges. And even though they come for two or three days and flip through countless manuals or look at countless computer screens, they really don't look, they only look at inputs. They don't look at the outputs, like graduation rates or financial health.

or post -graduation compensation. Those are really the things that if I'm a student, and I've long since passed that, if I'm a student, I don't care that your I's are dotted and your T's are crossed. And that's what I call accrediting agencies. That's what I mean. I call them I dotters and T -crossers, because I think that's the only real function they serve. Outside of they do have some semblance of capacity to manage the basics, basic inputs that a college provides its students.

Mary McGrath (10:37.487)
And when a student finally is accepted into a college or university and they do finally get there on campus, it's fall semester, starting to take classes, kind of figure out what they want to do. Is it an option for them to only take online courses, especially if they have a busy schedule, if they're an athlete

Gary (10:54.532)
sure. And increasingly, that's the case across the country. And some of the fastest growing public and private colleges are the ones who have mastered that online learning process. And even at your university, at the University they have been very aggressive in trying to get better at that. And they made some progress, I think. So the answer to your question is, students take online courses only?

The only caveat that I would share is it's still generally accepted and I think reasonable that part of the reason I went to college and part of the reason even you're going to college is that social component that if you got air quotes for those, you can't see me air quotes that growing up process that millions and millions and millions have gone through while going to college.

So while you certainly can take the online courses, if you're the traditional 18 to 22 year old student, at least weigh the factor that you may not get a chance to meet the Mary McGraths of the world or others like that. And that social piece that many of us, most of us probably think is as important and something get more important than the actual learning processes themselves that take place in college.

Mary McGrath (12:02.863)
Yeah, you make a great point about that. Obviously, it's important what you learn on the academic side of everything in college. But like you said, you learn almost lessons that are even more important for life in college just through that social piece. So that's a

Gary (12:14.83)
Well, even on the athletic piece, and it doesn't have to be athletic. You're part of a team, right? An athletic team. It could be a music team, it could be a dance team, it can be a technology team. Linenwood has a strong advertising club team. Think about the relationships you formed that you would not have had the chance to form if you weren't part of some kind of team. It doesn't matter if it's an athletic team. It's a team and think of all...

the coaches you've been able to learn from, both good things and bad things, I'm guessing, Mary. And if you do just, if you've just done the online piece, I'm sure you're taking some online courses, but that's not a big deal. But if it's exclusively online, I think you're missing part of the college experience.

Mary McGrath (12:53.615)
Yeah, for sure, for sure. So kind of getting back, switching gears again, what would you say are some of the indicators of a college that might be in financial distress in the near future or occur?

Gary (13:05.998)
Yeah, and I live this day by day, hour by hour, or sometimes minute by minute. And it comes from the College Viability app. And I'll do my weekly plug here. If you're a student or a family member and you're looking at colleges, you start here later this month or more logically next year, the College Viability app for students and families, 30 bucks, lets you compare the financial health of college. I'll answer your question with a couple of indicators, five of the indicators I think are important.

If you look at the data, and again, the college viability app, if the enrollment has gone down over the last eight years, that's an indicator of a college in distress. If something called their tuition and fee revenue, what they collect from students for tuition and room and board is essentially what that is. If that has gone down over the last eight years, that's an indicator of a college in success. If something called the admissions yield, the admissions yield has gone down, and admissions yield is a percentage of students

that a college accepts that actually show up, pay tuition, and attend classes. And if that admission yield is below 20 % as a general indicator, that means that college is not very popular. If the admission rate is in 30 to 40%, that means that college is doing something right. So when they make you an admissions offer, you accept it. But in most cases across the country, except for the elite colleges who want low admission yields,

most colleges have a decreasing admissions yield because students are choosing to either go somewhere else in part, but I think in large part students are applying to college and then especially this year with the FAFSA debacle are ending up not going at all. And then finally, there's an inside baseball term called percent admitted or percent admission. think percent admitted. And it's a function of selectivity.

So for example, WashU here in St. Louis, Their percent admitted of all the thousands of students that apply to Washington University here in St. Louis, they accept something less than 10%. They are that selective. They only want the top 10 % that meet their criteria and all the other things we've talked about today. A university like Linwood will accept and have to check the data. Will accept 60, 70%, I don't know what it is, but a higher percentage.

Gary (15:22.638)
because they aren't as selective. They don't have an ACT requirement of 28 or 29, whatever it is at WashU. Theirs is much lower than that. So that percent admitted, if it's close to 90 % or above 90%, then that's what we call a heartbeat. Admissions college, have heartbeat, will admit is not their official motto. That's just the one I assigned to it. And just one other thing to talk about, then I haven't even shared this with you yet, but just yesterday I started a new videocast.

with a gentleman called Dr. Matt Hendricks, and it's called the College Financial Health Show. And we are combining our data and our technologies to create a show that will go weekly, just like you and I do, that will focus on the specific financial health of a set of colleges each week. Now, yesterday in the premier episode, we did five colleges. They all happened to be from Missouri. That's the ones I selected. But the data's out there, and you've heard me use the term money ball before. And whether you're a student,

or a parent or a college leader or a faculty member or community leader or any other stakeholder, look at the data that is provided by applications like the College Viability App and the work that Matt Hendricks has done at Perspective Data Systems. Because if not, you'll choose a college that either closes or if it doesn't close, it's going to be so financially strapped it can't provide the level of

quality college education that you're looking

Mary McGrath (16:54.161)
Obviously, after this is all over, for most students, would assume the goal is to end up with that nice piece of paper, the diploma at the end of everything, the big degree. So would you say that a college degree guarantees a higher income in the workplace or does it

Gary (17:10.574)
Well, 100 % guarantee no, an overall guarantee easily yes, because you have at least demonstrated the capacity to show up for four years for bachelor's degree, attend classes, and put some modicum of effort toward the content. right. Those that don't go to college don't even have that skill set, that persistence to complete something to show. So yes, but in large part, it also depends on the degree. Now, you know, I've chatted before, you're double majoring in finance and marketing.

Yeah, the Mary McGraths of the world taking high quality usable content like that, they're going to be way ahead of the game of somebody who doesn't go to college. But on the other side, those students who take college majors and even get the degree in those majors with less economic demand are going to have trouble seeing that million dollar plus over a lifetime difference.

There are stories, countless stories, Mary, of many college graduates with diplomas across many majors still working at baristas at Starbucks and other places like that. In part, it's the individual, but in part, it's also the degree that folks choose. when I did this when I was 18 a long time ago, I'll be honest, I stumbled into the medical career, the medical laboratory career. Can't even tell you how. I saw a picture of a microscope 40 years ago, 45 years ago.

And that is started the process that gets you and I talking today, believe it or not, about the financial health and viability of colleges.

Mary McGrath (18:49.539)
And with that, it'll be a wrap for myself and for Gary Stocker. Thank you for joining us today on the Beyond the College Bursar podcast, where we provide guidance on college decisions, financials, and much more. If you have any questions or concerns about the financial health of colleges, please send them to marym at collegeviability .com. Thank you again for making the time to join us. We hope to see you next time.